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Tag: Assam

  • Why do you see Muslims everywhere? It’s TFR, stupid

    Why do you see Muslims everywhere? It's TFR, stupid

    The lower rung BJP leaders every now and then are known to raise the bogey of TFR (total fertility rate) and exhort Hindus to increase their fertility. No sooner are such ideas floated than the entire media gets up in arms, leading to disowning of such members and comments by top leaders.

    While the left chastises the TFR brigade by citing their ill-founded fears about Muslim population explosion, the neo-liberal supporters on the right — although acknowledging the problem — fail to react because they don’t or can’t match the resolve of Muslim women, as Hindu women are not captive breeders.

    But truth be told, gullible Hindus hide their personal choice of having few kids by hiding under the intellectual veneer of excess population, environment-saving, women’s empowerment and other ideas that they have been spoon-fed since independence and have taken up with great zeal like any other nouveau convert to modern memes. The national and state governments too have played their role to a large extent, hence we find open support for this government propaganda which has put the responsibility of saving the world squarely on Hindu shoulders.

    But how does the TFR actually look? We present the result for the two religions from the 2011 census for different states.

    Chart: TFR by religion — Hindu vs Muslim, across Indian states (Census 2011)
    Representative restoration image generated because the original image was not embedded in the supplied HTML.
    Chart: TFR comparison table — Hindu and Muslim fertility by state
    Representative restoration image generated because the original image was not embedded in the supplied HTML.

    A few things to notice here. First, Muslim fertility is higher in almost all states. Second, the fertility is hovering around or below 2 for most Hindus — below replacement level. So Hindu population in these states will actually fall in the future. Third, it is not that Muslims are having too many children — it is just that Hindus are having too few children, which allows Muslims to keep the same percentage fertility gap (the only thing which matters for population share growth).

    Another important point to note is that the percentage difference is much higher in some states which are important demographically — like Assam and West Bengal. The surprise addition is Haryana, with the highest TFR difference between the two communities. The current Muslim share of Haryana’s population is very low and so it would not impact right now, but if the trends continue Haryana too will join the list of west UP districts. Delhi was already surrounded by high Muslim population in west UP, Alwar and Mewat. If Haryana keeps going on this trajectory, the encirclement of Delhi will soon be complete.

    But what is causing this great fall in Hindu fertility?

    Chart: Urban Hindu TFR by state — hovering around 1.5 or below
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    It is the urban Hindu who is showing the same trend everywhere — his fertility is hanging around 1.5 level. In some states it has gone down to 1, like in West Bengal and Himachal Pradesh. The low Hindu fertility in urban areas generates a much higher percentage difference between the two religions. Rural areas, though better than urban areas, are still lagging behind Muslim TFR.

    Chart: TFR gap between Hindu and Muslim communities — Assam and West Bengal highlighted
    Representative restoration image generated because the original image was not embedded in the supplied HTML.

    While Assam and West Bengal are undergoing big demographic change and everyone is aware of the influx of illegal Bangladeshis there, no one wants to talk about the elephant in the room — the TFR difference between two communities in these two states. The percentage TFR gap is around 80% in Assam and 45% in West Bengal. It is easy to blame the illegals but one cannot deny the low fertility of Hindus in these regions as a big part of the problem. While Kerala and west UP would not have as many illegals as Assam or West Bengal, they too are facing a similar problem — and the question is why? It’s the TFR, stupid.

    Key takeaways

    • Muslims have higher TFR than Hindus in almost all states
    • The absolute TFR is falling for the whole country — for both Hindus and Muslims
    • The absolute TFR difference between Hindus and Muslims is now at 0.55
    • The percentage TFR difference between the two communities is at 26%, down from 30% in NFHS3 (2005–06), but still very high
    • The TFR percent difference is still very high for Assam, West Bengal and Kerala, thus making them hotspots — the new addition is Haryana
    • Urban Hindus are fertility shredders — most states showing below replacement level TFR of 2.1

    Hindus will be chiefly to blame themselves for the future change in demographics in most regions. The high cost of raising children is not an argument that will cut with nature. Nature is ruthless to those who under-breed. While it is easy to blame governments (which is needed, because they keep TFR numbers guarded or under the radar and don’t take action against illegals), a big blame lies with the individuals too. If you see the numbers of Muslims multiplying in your area, you should trust your own hunch rather than government. And most importantly — act on it.

  • How Assam ended up in a mess- a tale of greed

    How Assam ended up in a mess- a tale of greed

    Assam saw a brutal terrorist attack today. The land which strongly repulsed Mughal forces back at the heights of Mughal power has no option but to watch in horror as events unfold today. The fate of Assam was sealed some hundred years ago when greed took over and changed the demographics of this place forever.

    A once quiet place had big potential for tea plantation which was exploited to the hilt by the then powers.

    Chart: Area under tea plantation in Assam 1881–1931
    Representative restoration image generated because the original image was not embedded in the supplied HTML.
    Source: Homeshwar Goswami

    The area under tea plantation steadily went up beginning 1881, which quadrupled in the following five decades. The cheap labour needed for tea plantations were brought from other areas in Bengal and Bihar. The migration which was initially forced upon by the British colonial system was later endorsed by the middle class, which was convinced that no economic progress can take place without immigration.

    Table: Migration to Assam by religion — Muslims as dominant proportion of migrants
    Representative restoration image generated because the original image was not embedded in the supplied HTML.
    Source: Homeshwar Goswami

    What made the problem worse was that most of the immigrants were poor Muslims from Bengal. Comparing the data, one can immediately see that predominantly Muslims were migrating to Assam. Almost every decade saw an increase in Muslims in Assam due to immigration, since 80% of the migrants were Muslim.

    Table: Total percentage of immigrants in original stock — Assam 1881–1931
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    Source: Homeshwar Goswami

    To completely understand the impact of immigration on Assam, the above table comes handy — it gives the total percentage of immigrants in the original stock. It is an unprecedented story of mass immigration where in five decades the immigrant population rose from 5.3% in 1881 to 26.6% in 1931. Since almost 80% of these immigrants were Muslims, this increased the stock of Muslim population by more than 20% in five decades.

    The history of the Brahmaputra Valley for the last five decades is defined by events which took place more than 100 years ago. The hate for non-natives in Assam is very well justified due to the increased pressure on natural resources in the valley. This was a constant problem even at the time of the first phases of immigration as Assam lacked food grains, which had to be regularly imported from other areas. The once contractual workers who came for short durations kept settling down, thereby increasing pressure on resources further.

    Modern independent India did not reverse the problem but further exacerbated it by allowing unhindered immigration post independence. If you look at the current position of the state, Muslims are roughly 39% of the population in the 2011 census, which is supposed to cross 50% in the next three to four decades.

    Chart: Muslim population growth trajectory in Assam — projection to majority
    Representative restoration image generated because the original image was not embedded in the supplied HTML.
    Source: Dikgaj, Aparna, Sarkar

    The economic greed which changed the demographics of the state some hundred years ago charted the course of collision for the next hundred years. Those who think the Assam problem can be solved by development have ignored the historical reasons for the conflict, which will increasingly take religious fervour in the future. Even those who think about the idea of deporting illegal Bangladeshis only contemplate sending back those who came post 1971 — i.e. after the formation of Bangladesh. But will it solve the problem? Probably not. The damage was already completed in 1931. Muslims outbreeding other communities when in minority is a proven fact. So throwing back those who immigrated after 1971 can solve the problem momentarily by buying some time, but it will only push the conflict to the future as Assam will become a tinderbox again. Any migrant cut-off date less than 1881 won’t change the fate of the Brahmaputra Valley.

    The army of Aurangzeb must be laughing in its grave on how the Assamese willingly or unwillingly brought their own doom — after having successfully resisted the hordes of barbarians some three centuries ago.

    Sources:

    Indiafacts.org — Will Assam become Muslim majority in next 40 years?

    Population trends in Brahmaputra Valley — Homeshwar Goswami