My blog

Tag: Modi

  • Currency demonetization is a bad or at best no impact idea

    Currency demonetization is a bad or at best no impact idea

    The recent decision by PM Modi government to take out Rs 500/1000 notes out of circulation has caught the media and the whole country into a frenzy. The policy seems to be the government antidote against the issue of black money in the economy.

    The main reason behind this demonetization decision is to cut down the black economy in the country and dry up the illegal funds of those who have collected it over the years. So if you have large unaccounted cash, it is as good as piece of paper beginning November 8.

    The government is acting on the premise that there is large amounts of black money in India and it is held in cash. This gives us two scenarios in the wake of this decision-

    1) There is really large amount of black money in the economy. So if you take this money out of economy, it will hit the economy hard post this decision, thus making demonetization a bad decision

    or

    2) There is no large amount of black money in the economy and there would be no impact on the economy. If this is the case, then it hardly makes sense to demonetize.

    Having seen how an average medium sized business operates in India, one should lean towards the first scenario that economy will be hit hard by this decision. There are large number of inefficient and unseen taxes on businesses, which makes them less productive and also makes it essential for them to engage into unlawful activities to keep the business running.

    So who might have large amounts of cash sitting at their place? Just think of any neighbourhood shop which does not give a receipt for your purchase, the owner there might have generated some amount of black money. And if the amount of black money hoarded by them is really high, expect them to fire their employees and shut shops in the wake of this decision.

    One of the sectors which is supposedly flushed with large amounts of black money is the real estate sector. The real estate sector has not done well for the past two years and it might get hit even more post this decision. There might be many people with white money, who have invested in unfinished projects, and they would lose all their investment because the real estate company cannot complete the project now.

    Also, the whole exercise seems a bit futile once you take into account that the government has decided to reissue new Rs 2000 notes. The rules of the game i.e. the discretionary power with the babus, have not changed and those who earlier collected Rs 500/1000 notes will now switch to hoarding money in Rs 2000 notes. So, this will have no impact on the future generation of black money.

    So, what should you make out of this policy? Brace yourself for a rude shock if you really believed that black money formed a significant part of Indian economy. And if you don’t get this rude shock, then it was just an empty noise without any substance and black money was not even an issue to begin with. Black money is a symptom of the inefficiencies and bad laws in the economy, which forces a large number of businesses to cut corners to remain viable.

    P.S. 1- The article only dealt with the economic issues of black money and some people will point out its impact on terrorist infrastructure or future state elections.

    P.S. 2- There is 3rd scenario not mentioned above, if you believe in super powers of black money hoarders- they have large amounts of money but they find a way to fool Modi government.

  • Has PM Modi discredited the whole cow protection movement

    Has PM Modi discredited the whole cow protection movement

    If you want to excel at running by the agenda of other people, you just have to learn the art of putting foot in the mouth from BJP. This time no one else, but the mascot of hardcore Hindutva before 2014 i.e. PM Modi has capitulated in front of the demands of Christlamists by denouncing those who try to protect cows under gross negligence of duty by the Indian state.

    Yes, there have been instances of vigilantism, but cow protection is close to the heart of most un-deracinated Hindus, who still do not take pride in eating beef. We at Yuga Parivartan have already written detailed account on rise of vigilantism for cow protection, which has risen not due to increased Hindutva forces but state apathy towards cow protection after passing legislation for cow protection and being duty bound to uphold it.

    Sadly, while blaming the vigilantes PM Modi completely side-stepped the issue of cow smuggling. Why do you think in BJP ruled states people have to resort to cow vigilantism? If BJP governments were strict, there would hardly be any cases of vigilantism.

    But let us get back to the bigger issue and ramifications of this statement. With a single statement:

    1) PM has de-legitimized the whole movement to protect cows. Most GauRakshaks are now painted as extremist hooligans.

    2) There was no mention of cow slaughter, so MSM is free to twist the statements and harass cow protectors.

    3) It will alienate the core Hindutva supporters of BJP.

    As a master politician, PM Modi should have understood these ramifications. It is important to underline that Modi is the same politician who refused to give any statements about 2002 riots before the run up to 2014 elections. Had he raised the issue of plastics along with the illegal cow smuggling, it would still have been understandable.

    In any case, silence is golden. Have you ever heard a leftist disown Naxal cause? Or a Muslim disown Kashmir militants? Probably BJP and Modi need to learn a lot from their adversaries.

    EDIT: After the speech, the tweets sent by PM as well as the clarification issued out today points towards the fact that PM Modi realised that his statements were far from clear on cow protection issue.

    Clarification: Cow protection is important Hindu issue and does not directly translate into vigilantism. But for the latter to not happen, state governments should strictly enforce cow protection laws.

  • Is Modi on the way to become next ABV

    Is Modi on the way to become next ABV contextual illustration
    Contextual editorial illustration for the restored article.

    Modi was chosen as the 14th Prime Minister of India with great aplomb and his elevation was finally seen as the return of a strong PM after ten years of weak-kneed Manmohan Singh in the PM’s chair. While it was common knowledge that MMS was driven by the kitchen cabinet of the National Advisory Council (NAC), it is far from clear who is running the current PMO. Is it the same strong-willed Narendra Bhai from Gujarat or just a faded copy of him? While there are some areas where Modi and his ministers are doing well and deserve rightful credit, there are a large number of issues which his government has not touched even with a bargepole. There are a host of secular issues like repeal of RTE, freeing temples from government control and illegal immigration of Bangladeshis where his government has shown absolute silence or disinterest. But what is more worrying is that now the government has also started playing to the gallery and trying to win over city-bred liberals, who were never his core supporters.

    The TRAI ruling on Net Neutrality is the latest gaffe which can be added to the list of policy blunders under Modi’s watch. Once again, the Modi government caved in to pressure and tried to please the generation of urban activists — the same crowd who held monopoly over public policy under Congress. If the rural areas had been so happy with Congress top-down policy making, Modi would not have got the massive mandate that he got from the hinterland. In one blow, the minuscule population who have grown up on a regular Facebook feed decided that such low prices for consumers would be bad for poor people because their western masters said so — and forced their own government to do away with Free Basics. The last line of a screenshot circulating on social media gives away the superiority complex of the urban activists, who are more than happy to use all these services themselves but have a problem if they get extended to the poor, even for free. Sadly, they have found support from Modi to pursue these initiatives which in the long run will hurt the rural folks — simply because they could not register their voice through online activism.

    But Net Neutrality is not the first issue where the Modi government has tried to woo the city-bred liberal crowd. The decision to induct women in combat duties in the IAF is another appeasement policy by the government. It has been a failed and controversial policy everywhere in the world, but the MoD justified this decision by citing trends in other developed countries. Since India has many other pressing issues, it is a big mystery why Modi agreed to pursue this issue when it hardly comes up for debate in India. Is it just another attempt to play to the liberal gallery by picking up some of their pet issues?

    The solar energy initiative is another wasteful effort by the Modi government and can seriously jeopardize the energy security of the country by diverting investments away from serious and time-tested energy solutions. While most developed countries have failed to cash upon solar energy because it is expensive and inefficient, it is surprising why Modi is still pushing for it. While it would have been understandable if the private or public sector made R&D investments in solar energy, given the current technology it does not make sense to set up expensive solar plants when other cheaper options are available. So it would not be far-fetched to say that PM Modi is trying to court the environmentalists — yet another group of liberals who derive their inspiration from the west.

    These are only three policy initiatives out of a big list of policy blunders which show that Modi is trying hard to win the sympathy of the liberals while ignoring his core support base. Sadly the issues raised in this article do not even cover the so-called Hindu issues like temple management — which are actually secular issues — where Modi has maintained complete silence. If Modi continues to go down this path of appeasing non-entities, it would be a great waste of the historic mandate that he got in the summer of 2014. Unlike Vajpayee, who ran a coalition government, Modi would not even have the excuse of blaming coalition partners for his mistakes. It is high time that he wakes up and stops taking the endorsement of his core supporters for granted.

    Originally published February 9, 2016 on Yuga Parivartan.